Banco de Portugal published the December economic bulletin, in which it projects growth of the Portuguese economy in about 4.8% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022, followed by a more moderate pace of expansion in 2023 and 2024, 3.1% and 2.0%, respectively.
The recovery of activity translates into an increase in employment and a reduction in the unemployment rate to levels below pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation increases in 2021 and 2022, to 0.9% and 1.8%, respectively, settling at 1.1% and 1.3% in the following two years, with a profile heavily influenced by the evolution of energetic goods prices.
Inflation, excluding energy, increases gradually over the projected horizon, reaching 1.5% in 2024.
The evolution of activity is conditioned in the short term by a new wave of the pandemic in Europe and by problems in global supply chains. The reintroduction of restrictive measures to contain the pandemic, including on international mobility, along with increased uncertainty, will impact the pace of recovery, in particular tourism-related services. Additionally, it is assumed that the disruptions in global supply chains, which have been reflected in the scarcity of raw materials and other goods and an increase in their costs, will dissipate from the second half of 2022.
The projected path of economic growth is supported by the maintenance of favorable financial conditions and by greater receipts of funds from the European Union.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) resumes pre-pandemic level in the first half of 2022, but at the end of the horizon remains below the projected trend before the pandemic occurred. Average GDP growth in Portugal in the period 2022-24 is 3.6%, which compares with a Eurosystem projection of 2.9% for the European area.
Current projections see the economy growing in 2022-23 upwards.
You can consult the Bulletin in detail at the link below:
Source: Banco de Portugal
